5-Pillar Pricing Engine

Overview

WaxEngine uses a 5-pillar pricing engine to generate data-driven price suggestions for every card. Rather than relying on a single data source, the engine combines multiple signals and documents its reasoning at every step so you can see exactly why a price was suggested.

Each pillar is consulted in priority order. The engine blends results, applies competitive caps, and produces a final suggestion with a confidence rating.

The Five Pillars

Pillar 1: Own Sales History

Your own completed sales are the strongest pricing signal. If you have previously sold the same card (or a very close match), that sale price anchors the suggestion.

• Matches on player, card number, year, and parallel
• Recent sales are weighted more heavily than older ones
• Multiple sales of the same card produce a median price

This pillar has the highest confidence because it reflects your actual market position, your photos, your seller rating, your shipping terms.

Pillar 2: Progressive Broadening

When an exact match is not found in your sales history, the engine progressively broadens its search criteria through the comp database:

Exact Match:    Player + Card # + Year + Parallel + Set
    |
    v
Broaden 1:      Player + Card # + Year + Parallel (any set)
    |
    v
Broaden 2:      Player + Card # + Year (any parallel)
    |
    v
Broaden 3:      Player + Year + Set (any card #)
    |
    v
Broaden 4:      Player + Year (general market value)

At each level, the engine records how many comps were found and what match criteria were used. This progressive approach prevents the “no data” problem while making it clear when a price is based on looser matching.

Pillar 3: Active Competition

The engine searches eBay for currently active listings of the same card. This pillar answers the question: “What are other sellers charging right now?”

Key metrics extracted:

• Lowest active price, The cheapest competing listing
• Median active price, The middle of the market
• Number of active listings, Supply pressure
• Your position, Where your price ranks against competitors

Active competition data powers two important caps:

• Competitive cap: If the suggested price exceeds the lowest active listing by more than 15% (and there are 2+ active listings), the price is capped to 10% above the lowest
• Median cap: If the suggested price exceeds 120% of the active median, it is capped to the median

Both caps prevent overpricing in competitive markets while still allowing a reasonable premium.

Pillar 4: Cumulative Comp Database

WaxEngine maintains a database of comparable sales built from live eBay queries. This database grows over time as you scan and price cards.

The comp database provides:

• Historical sold prices across sellers (not just your own)
• Broader market data for cards you have not personally sold
• Faster lookups than live searches (results are cached)

The engine searches this database using the same progressive broadening logic as Pillar 2.

Pillar 5: Category Fallbacks

When no comparable data exists at any broadening level, the engine falls back to category-based pricing. This uses aggregate statistics for the card’s category:

• Average price for the set and year
• Average price for the player across all sets
• Minimum listing price floor (prevents $0.99 suggestions on valuable cards)

Category fallbacks produce the lowest confidence ratings and are flagged clearly in the price breakdown.

Price Breakdown Modal

Clicking the suggested price on any card (in Price Review or Tier panels) opens a detailed breakdown popup showing:

Comparable Sales Section

• Number of comps found and match level used
• Median sold price from comps
• Your own sales for this card (if any)
• Price range bar showing min/max/suggested positioning

Active Competition Section

• Total active listings count
• Active median and lowest prices
• Your price position relative to competitors
• Individual listing details with badges:
  • LOWEST (red), The cheapest competitor
  • YOUR SALE (teal), Your own active listing
  • BEST OFFER (blue), Listings accepting offers

Pricing Notes

A plain-English explanation of every adjustment the engine made:

Base price: $12.50 (median of 4 sold comps, exact match)
Own sales adjustment: +$1.00 (your avg sale price is $13.50)
Competitive cap applied: capped from $15.00 to $13.75
  (lowest active: $12.50, cap = lowest * 1.10)
Final suggestion: $13.75 (HIGH confidence)

Confidence Levels

Each price suggestion includes a confidence rating based on data quality:

Level	Color	Criteria
HIGH	Green	3+ sold comps with exact or near-exact matching
MEDIUM	Yellow	1-2 sold comps, or active-only pricing
LOW	Yellow	Broad matching only, limited data
NO DATA	Red	Category fallback, no comparable sales found

In the Price Review panel, card backgrounds are colored to match:

• Green background = HIGH confidence
• Yellow background = MEDIUM or LOW confidence
• Red background = NO DATA

Competitive Pricing Logic

The pricing engine includes specific rules to keep your listings competitive:

The 1.15 / 1.10 Rule

if suggested price > lowest active * 1.15 (and 2+ active listings):
    cap to lowest active * 1.10

If your suggested price is more than 15% above the cheapest active listing and there are at least 2 competitors, the engine caps your price to just 10% above the lowest. This keeps you competitive without racing to the bottom.

Median Cap

if suggested price > active median * 1.20:
    cap to active median

If your price exceeds 120% of the active median, it is pulled down to the median. This prevents outlier comps from inflating your prices unrealistically.

Minimum Floor

All prices respect a minimum listing price floor. The engine will never suggest a price below this threshold regardless of what comps show.

Repricing Workflow

When you review prices, you have full control:

1. Accept the suggested price as-is
2. Adjust the price manually (the field is editable)
3. View breakdown to understand the reasoning, then decide
4. Skip the card if you want to price it later

Prices are saved to your inventory when you click Save Selected. They are not published to eBay until you explicitly click Publish.

Tips for Better Pricing

• Run Analyze regularly, This refreshes your performance cache, which feeds into pricing decisions
• Check breakdowns on yellow cards, Medium confidence prices benefit most from manual review
• Monitor the competitive cap, If many of your prices are being capped, the market may have shifted
• Build your comp database, The more cards you scan and price, the better Pillar 4 becomes over time

Next Steps

• Tier Management, How performance tiers use pricing data for ongoing management
• Automation, Automate repricing and offer decisions
• Card Scanning, The scanning workflow that feeds into pricing